Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia SimakinPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Ilia Simakin have met 1 time since 2026; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 2 sets to Simakin's 1. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Simakin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 54% | 29/54 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 45% | 36/80 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 50% | 26/52 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 87% | 39/45 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 64% | 29/45 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Simakin 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Simakin
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Ilia Simakin.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 8, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Simakin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 96% | 21/22 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 96% | 21/22 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 73% | 16/22 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 23% | 5/22 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 5% | 1/22 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/22 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–8 | 21–2 |
| Avg odds | 3.21 | 1.38 |
| ROI % | -36.3% | +25.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.99u | +5.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 9 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,643 mi · 2,644 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | VIE → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Carabelli and Simakin posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Cina | L 36 26 | W 63 36 63 |
| Marko Topo | W 67 76 63 | L 46 64 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rigele Te
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Luka Pavlovic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Hunter Heck
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Cruz Hewitt
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Blake Ellis
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Timofei Derepasko
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–80 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 68% |
| Sets won | 47% | 61% |
| Games won | 48% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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