Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gastao EliasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Gastao Elias have met 3 times since 2018; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Campinas in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Carabelli leads 2–1. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 5 sets to Elias's 3. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Poznan Challenger (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Elias | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Gastao Elias | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 92% | 11/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 19% | 4/21 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 43% | 3/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 0% | 0/3 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 85% | 11/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 85% | 11/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 1, Elias 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Elias
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 20, 2024
Poznan Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 28, 2021
Oeiras 4 Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 3, 2018
Campinas
C Clay · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Elias |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | - |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | - |
| ROI % | -47.1% | - |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Elias |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | — |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Tiago Pereira
Oeiras 4 Challenger · 1st Round
May 12
Joao Domingues
M25 Loule · 2nd Round
May 7
Carles Rojas
M25 Loule · 1st Round
May 6
John Echeverria
M25 Quinta do Lago · 2nd Round
Apr 30
Ids Waterbolk
M25 Quinta do Lago · Round of 32
Apr 29
Ids Waterbolk
M25 Quinta do Lago · 1st Round
Apr 28
Joel Schwaerzler
Oeiras 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 13
Lui Maxted
M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio 2 · Quarterfinals
Feb 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–49 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Elias |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 57% |
| Sets won | 47% | 59% |
| Games won | 48% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Elias |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Elias |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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