Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Federico CoriaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Federico Coria have met 5 times since 2019; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Buenos Aires in 2019 on clay. On clay courts Carabelli leads 4–0. Carabelli has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Carabelli leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 8 sets to Coria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Movistar Chile Open - Santiago (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Coria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Federico Coria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 9% | 1/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 22% | 4/18 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 33% | 5/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 86% | 6/7 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 4, Coria 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Coria
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 233 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 28, 2025
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 4, 2024
Piracicaba Challenger
C Clay · Final
Nov 13, 2023
Montevideo Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 22, 2023
US Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 12, 2019
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Coria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Federico Coria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 25% | 1/4 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–8 | 1–4 |
| Avg odds | 3.30 | 3.57 |
| ROI % | -52.4% | -57.2% |
| Units P/L | -5.24u | -2.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Coria's 0%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 64 | L 57 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Eduardo Ribeiro
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Lucio Ratti
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Clement Chidekh
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Francesco Forti
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Vitaliy Sachko
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 18
Taro Daniel
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Noah Thurner
Bundesliga - men
Jul 10
Guy Den Ouden
Liege Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 18–49 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 39% |
| Sets won | 47% | 38% |
| Games won | 48% | 46% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 4 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.