Bruno Fernandez vs Mateus AlvesPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 12 · 2:00 PM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.20 or shorter, Mateus Alves has won 43 of 49 (88%). That is level with the 87% the price implied.
At 4.30 or longer, Bruno Fernandez has won 3 of 14 (21%). The price implied 15%, so Bruno Fernandez has beaten it by 6 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Mateus Alves meets Bruno Fernandez in the 3rd Round Qualifying of the Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Challenger on October 12. The clay court will host two players ranked outside the top 400, with Alves at 385 and Fernandez at 567.
The two have never faced each other. Alves has won 3 of his last 5 matches but lost his most recent outing; Fernandez has won only 2 of 5 and 4 of 10. On clay, Alves carries a 17-3 record at 85%, while Fernandez sits at 10-10. Both have played five matches in the past two weeks, with Alves idle for a week before this qualifier and Fernandez coming off a match one day prior.
Alves operates as a complete all-court player with solid fundamentals across serves, baseline exchanges, and net play. Fernandez relies on reading opponents and striking off their pace, a style that demands rhythm and court positioning. Alves' clay record reflects comfort on the surface; Fernandez has struggled to find consistency there. The question is whether Fernandez can disrupt Alves' timing from the baseline or whether Alves' broader toolkit will prove too much on a surface that rewards all-around skill.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Alves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Bruno Fernandez | Mateus Alves | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 88% | 35/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/59 | 26% | 16/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 11/27 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 13/26 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 15% | 2/13 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 26/31 | 88% | 36/41 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 17/31 | 85% | 35/41 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
🪃 Counterpuncher
Alves
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mateus Alves.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Fernandez and Alves have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Alves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Bruno Fernandez | Mateus Alves | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 16/20 | 100% | 24/24 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 6/20 | 92% | 22/24 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 71% | 17/24 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 8% | 2/24 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/24 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/24 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–10 | 19–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.94 | 1.18 |
| ROI % | -29.9% | -6.8% |
| Units P/L | -5.98u | -1.55u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 835 mi · 1,344 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ARG → BRA | BRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fernandez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Alves's 38%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Donoso | W 60 61 | L 75 63 |
| Wilson Leite | W 64 16 62 | W 75 62 |
| Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto | L 67 64 36 | L 67 57 |
| Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | W 63 46 76 | L 67 61 76 |
| Nicolas Kicker | L 67 64 46 | W 64 61 |
| Nick Hardt | L 63 36 36 | L 67 63 26 |
| Nicolas Villalon | W 60 62 | W 63 63 |
| Gonzalo Bueno | L 26 57 | L 64 26 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Donoso
Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Lautaro Midon
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Wilson Leite
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto
Curitiba Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Zeballos
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Franco Roncadelli
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Jose Pereira
Antofagasta Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Bautista De La Pena
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Gonzalo Villanueva
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jose Pereira
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Curitiba · Final
Sep 27
Wilson Leite
M15 Curitiba · Semifinals
Sep 26
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
M15 Curitiba · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–62 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 53% |
| Sets won | 49% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |