Mateus Alves vs Rafael TosettoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mateus Alves and Rafael Tosetto have met 3 times since 2026; Mateus Alves leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at M15 Maringa in 2026 on clay. On clay courts Alves leads 2–0. Alves has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Alves has taken 6 sets to Tosetto's 0. Their most recent meeting: Mateus Alves won at M15 Leme (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alves | Tosetto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mateus Alves | Rafael Tosetto | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 88% | 36/41 | 74% | 17/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 11/22 | 21% | 6/29 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 16/63 | 23% | 12/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 27/41 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 6/9 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 37/42 | 95% | 20/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 36/42 | 81% | 17/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alves 3, Tosetto 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alves
👑 The Complete Package
Tosetto
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mateus Alves.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 12, 2026
M15 Leme
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 5, 2026
M15 Porto Velho
H Hard · Semifinals
May 13, 2026
M15 Maringa
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alves | Tosetto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mateus Alves | Rafael Tosetto | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 24/24 | 82% | 18/22 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 22/24 | 59% | 13/22 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 17/24 | 36% | 8/22 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 2/24 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/22 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 19–4 | 11–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.18 | 2.65 |
| ROI % | -6.8% | -11.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.55u | -2.25u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | BRA | BRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alves has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Tosetto's 20%).
| Opponent | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Pereira | L 36 36 | L 46 63 36 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | L 26 36 | L 67 46 |
| Wilson Leite | W 75 62 | L 36 64 67 |
| Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | W 76 64 | L 67 64 67 |
| Francisco Fontes Damorim | L 75 63 | W 76 75 |
| Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio | W 63 61 | L 67 46 |
| Ryan Augusto Dos Santos | W 75 63 | W 62 26 108 |
| Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida | L 63 75 | L 57 67 |
| Nicolas Villalon | W 63 63 | L 46 26 |
| Herman Hoeyeraal | W 61 61 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jose Pereira
Antofagasta Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Bautista De La Pena
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Gonzalo Villanueva
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jose Pereira
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Curitiba · Final
Sep 27
Wilson Leite
M15 Curitiba · Semifinals
Sep 26
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
M15 Curitiba · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Jose Pereira
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Unknown Player
M15 Curitiba · 1st Round
Sep 23
Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio
M15 Belem · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Unknown Player
M15 Belem · 1st Round
Sep 16
Unknown Player
M15 Belem · 1st Round
Sep 16
Mateus Alves
M15 Leme · Semifinals
Sep 12
Pedro Rodrigues Longobardi
M15 Leme · 2nd Round
Sep 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–63 matches
| Metric | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 44% |
| Sets won | 65% | 45% |
| Games won | 56% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alves | Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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