Aslan Karatsev vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aslan Karatsev and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 2–1. Across all meetings Karatsev has taken 5 sets to McDonald's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aslan Karatsev won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Karatsev | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aslan Karatsev | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 100% | 4/4 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 32% | 9/28 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 0% | 0/4 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 100% | 3/3 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 37% | 7/19 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 24% | 4/17 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 4/4 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 100% | 4/4 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Karatsev 0, McDonald 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Karatsev
💥 Big Hitter
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aslan Karatsev.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 8, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 22, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 19, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Karatsev | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.21 |
| ROI % | - | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Karatsev | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karan Singh
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Apr 16
Christian Djonov
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · Round of 32
Apr 15
Christian Djonov
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Apr 15
Andriy Poritskyy
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 3rd Round Qualifying
Apr 14
Aleksandre Shvangiradze
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 13
Federico Cina
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 7
Filip Pieczonka
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 5
Mikhail Kukushkin
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 4–51 matches
| Metric | Karatsev | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 100% | 41% |
| Sets won | 100% | 43% |
| Games won | 69% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Karatsev | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Karatsev | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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