Anastasija Sevastova vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Anastasija Sevastova
#589 · 36 yrs · Right-Handed
37w6 meetings · sets 6–8
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Anastasija Sevastova and Naomi Osaka have met 6 times since 2017; Naomi Osaka leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Toronto in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 4–2. Osaka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sevastova has taken 6 sets to Osaka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sevastova | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasija Sevastova | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 25% | 1/4 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 2/4 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 63% | 5/8 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 17% | 1/6 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 1/2 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 100% | 3/3 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 33% | 1/3 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sevastova 2, Osaka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sevastova
🎯 Baseliner
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 330 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Naomi Osaka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 3, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 17, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 4, 2019
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 6, 2018
Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 14, 2018
Doha
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 9, 2017
Toronto
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sevastova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.66 |
| ROI % | - | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | - | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sevastova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | — | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Open BLS de Limoges - Limoges · 2nd Round
Dec 11
Aliona Falei
W75 Trnava 4 · Quarterfinals
Nov 28
Weronika Ewald
W75 Trnava 4 · 2nd Round
Nov 27
Weronika Ewald
W75 Trnava · Round of 16
Nov 27
Ayla Aksu
W75 Trnava 4 · 1st Round
Nov 26
Maya Joint
Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong · 1st Round
Oct 28
Jasmine Paolini
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Kimberly Birrell
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 24
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 8–44 matches
| Metric | Sevastova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 73% |
| Sets won | 48% | 67% |
| Games won | 47% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sevastova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sevastova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
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