Anastasia Potapova vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#25 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 2–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Anastasia Potapova and Jessica Pegula have met 4 times since 2021; Jessica Pegula leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3–0. Pegula has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 2 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 15/26 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 4/15 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 15/41 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 9/22 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 12/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 0, Pegula 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 11, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 28, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 12, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 31, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -47.9% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.83u | +2.29u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 12 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Potapova's 30%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 46 76 64 | L 26 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 57 46 | W 62 46 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 36 36 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 16 16 | W 62 64 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 62 67 | W 63 75 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | L 26 36 | W 61 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 26 46 | L 46 64 36 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 67 67 | W 64 67 60 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 63 64 | W 62 64 |
| Katie Boulter | W 57 64 62 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Diana Shnaider
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Venus Williams
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Suzan Lamens
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 10
Anna Kalinskaya
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–76 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 75% |
| Sets won | 58% | 66% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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