Alexander Donski vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Donski and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 1 time since 2026; Alexander Donski leads 1–0. Across all meetings Donski has taken 2 sets to Varillas's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Donski won at Zug Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Donski | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Donski | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 18/27 | 62% | 24/39 |
| Wins a set when losing | 52% | 11/21 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 20/48 | 35% | 23/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 8/12 | 25% | 5/20 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 73% | 19/26 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 13/24 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 22/24 | 89% | 33/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 18/24 | 65% | 24/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Donski 1, Pablo Varillas 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Donski
🤖 Servebot
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Donski.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 20, 2026
Zug Challenger
C Clay · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Donski | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Donski | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.61 | 2.12 |
| ROI % | +28.0% | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | +2.24u | +5.79u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POR | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Donski and Varillas posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Arnaboldi | W 63 36 64 | W 57 75 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Georgii Kravchenko
Olbia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Andrea Guerrieri
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Daniil Glinka
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 7
Alejandro Moro Canas
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Takuya Kumasaka
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Nitin Kumar Sinha
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 3
Kenny De Schepper
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 2
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Murkel Dellien
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–66 matches
| Metric | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 59% |
| Sets won | 56% | 55% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Donski | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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