Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2016; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Moscow in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 3–0. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Busta leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 3 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 19/28 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/47 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 17/38 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 4/9 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Bublik.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Final
Oct 16, 2016
Moscow
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 42% | 5/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -9.9% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.19u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Bublik and Busta posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 16 26 | L 36 64 16 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Tomas Machac | W 64 76 | W 63 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 46 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 61 61 | W 63 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 36 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 62 75 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 46 67 | L 64 57 36 |
| Thanasi Kokkinakis | W 46 63 67 63 64 | W |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 67 16 | W 64 26 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rafael Jodar
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Adrian Mannarino
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–59 matches
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 62% |
| Sets won | 58% | 58% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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