Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2016; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Moscow in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 3–0. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Busta leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 3 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 20/29 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/48 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 18/42 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 3/6 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 14/27 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Final
Oct 16, 2016
Moscow
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 62% | 8/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -6.8% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.88u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bublik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Busta's 60%).
| Opponent | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Royer | W 76 76 | L 61 57 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 46 67 | L 64 57 36 |
| Thanasi Kokkinakis | W 46 63 67 63 64 | W 75 46 10 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 67 16 | W 64 26 76 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 76 36 62 | W 64 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 62 75 | W 63 76 63 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 57 75 75 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 64 | L 26 16 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 75 64 75 | W 46 76 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 46 46 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Semifinals
Jul 24
Alex Molcan
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 23
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Quentin Halys
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Frances Tiafoe
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Kyrian Jacquet
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–65 matches
| Metric | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 65% |
| Sets won | 57% | 60% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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