Alex Michelsen vs Daniel MeridaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida have met 2 times since 2026; Alex Michelsen leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Michelsen leads 2–0. Michelsen has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 5 sets to Merida's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 17/53 | 45% | 25/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 44% | 14/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 68% | 21/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 1, Merida 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Merida
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 5, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Merida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 13/20 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 3–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -1.6% | +10.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.31u | +0.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Michelsen and Merida posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 46 | L 61 36 46 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 36 63 64 | W 57 63 63 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 63 16 | L 36 26 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | W 63 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 64 76 | W 46 62 62 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 64 75 | W 75 64 |
| Mark Lajal | W 63 64 | L 26 26 |
| Liam Broady | W 63 76 | W 64 62 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | L 63 36 57 26 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 57 46 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alejandro Tabilo
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Andrey Rublev
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marton Fucsovics
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 61% |
| Sets won | 60% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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