Alex Bolt vs Keegan SmithPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Bolt and Keegan Smith have met 3 times since 2023; Alex Bolt leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Waco Challenger in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Bolt leads 2–0. Across all meetings Bolt has taken 4 sets to Smith's 2. Their most recent meeting: Keegan Smith won at Ilkley Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bolt | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Bolt | Keegan Smith | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 72% | 48/67 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 10/21 | 47% | 15/32 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 21/53 | 34% | 34/99 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 17/33 | 59% | 35/59 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 12/17 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 72% | 18/25 | 54% | 27/50 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 85% | 56/66 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 21/32 | 73% | 48/66 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bolt 2, Smith 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bolt
🤖 Servebot
Smith
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 10, 2026
Ilkley Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
May 1, 2026
Jiujiang Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 28, 2023
Waco Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bolt | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Bolt | Keegan Smith | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | 9–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 2.25 |
| ROI % | -52.1% | +31.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.65u | +4.78u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Smith has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Bolt's 50%).
| Opponent | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Noguchi | W 76 76 | W 63 46 62 |
| Philip Sekulic | W 62 61 | W 62 75 |
| Yunchaokete Bu | L 57 26 | L 46 57 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | L 57 26 | L 46 57 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | L 26 76 36 | W 57 60 63 |
| Darwin Blanch | W 75 63 | W 46 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Abedallah Shelbayh
Lexington Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Oliver Tarvet
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mattia Bellucci
Terra Wortmann Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Jamie Mackenzie
Terra Wortmann Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Keegan Smith
Ilkley Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 10
Arthur Fery
Birmingham Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Mattia Bellucci
Birmingham Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 2
Lukas Neumayer
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 18
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Paul Inchauspe
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Digvijay Pratap Singh
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Nerman Fatic
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Niels McDonald
Braunschweig Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Zsombor Piros
Brasov Challenger · Final
Jul 5
Guido Ivan Justo
Brasov Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–99 matches
| Metric | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 68% |
| Sets won | 58% | 64% |
| Games won | 52% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bolt | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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