Aleksandr Shevchenko vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aleksandr Shevchenko and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at St. Tropez Challenger in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Shevchenko has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shevchenko has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aleksandr Shevchenko won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shevchenko | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandr Shevchenko | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 14/27 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 7/25 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 20/52 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 9/20 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 14/30 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 21/37 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 52% | 14/27 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shevchenko 0, Arnaldi 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shevchenko
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aleksandr Shevchenko.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 5, 2026
Miami Open presented by Itau
H Hard · Round of 128
Jan 3, 2023
Canberra Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 11, 2022
St. Tropez Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shevchenko | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandr Shevchenko | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 69% | 11/16 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 8/16 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.97 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -7.5% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Shevchenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Arnaldi's 50%).
| Opponent | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 46 63 36 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Quentin Halys | W 76 63 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Damir Dzumhur | W 46 64 75 | L 67 76 67 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 36 63 64 | L 16 76 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 57 46 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 61 36 61 | W 61 57 76 |
| Jaume Munar | L 46 16 | W 63 36 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 76 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Jan-Lennard Struff
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Stefanos Tsitsipas
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Quentin Halys
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Dominic Stricker
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Alexandre Muller
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Taro Daniel
Bratislava Challenger · Final
Jun 14
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–56 matches
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 50% |
| Sets won | 47% | 49% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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