Aleksandr Shevchenko vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aleksandr Shevchenko and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at St. Tropez Challenger in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Shevchenko has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shevchenko has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aleksandr Shevchenko won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shevchenko | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandr Shevchenko | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 13/24 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 8/28 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 19/52 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 8/21 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 14/29 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 17/33 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 77% | 20/26 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 13/26 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shevchenko 0, Arnaldi 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shevchenko
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 5, 2026
Miami Open presented by Itau
H Hard · Round of 128
Jan 3, 2023
Canberra Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 11, 2022
St. Tropez Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shevchenko | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandr Shevchenko | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–8 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.53 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -45.9% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.05u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,032 mi · 1,661 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Shevchenko's 50%).
| Opponent | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 67 | W 64 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 46 63 36 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Quentin Halys | W 76 63 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Damir Dzumhur | W 46 64 75 | L 67 76 67 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 36 63 64 | L 16 76 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | L | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 61 36 61 | W 61 57 76 |
| Jaume Munar | L 46 16 | W 63 36 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yoshihito Nishioka
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Botic van de Zandschulp
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Kyrian Jacquet
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Jan-Lennard Struff
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–57 matches
| Metric | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 52% |
| Sets won | 44% | 50% |
| Games won | 48% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shevchenko | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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