Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aleksandar Kovacevic and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2023; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 3–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kovacevic has taken 1 sets to Arnaldi's 6. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kovacevic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 13/25 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 17/34 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 29/59 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 8/16 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 66% | 27/41 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 23/44 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 13/26 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kovacevic 0, Arnaldi 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kovacevic
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 20, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 6, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 5, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kovacevic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–8 | 4–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.45 | 2.92 |
| ROI % | -8.5% | -29.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.11u | -2.93u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Kovacevic's 10%).
| Opponent | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini | L 76 16 46 | W |
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 63 67 | W 26 64 64 |
| Jaume Munar | L 26 36 | W 63 36 63 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Nuno Borges | L 76 26 46 | W 63 67 76 |
| Damir Dzumhur | L 76 36 67 | L 67 76 67 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 67 | L 76 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 46 63 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 06 46 | L 16 64 36 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 62 26 36 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Zachary Svajda
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Lloyd Harris
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Arthur Fery
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Luca Van Assche
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–63 matches
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 40% | 52% |
| Sets won | 43% | 50% |
| Games won | 48% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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