Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aleksandar Kovacevic and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2023; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 3–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kovacevic has taken 1 sets to Arnaldi's 6. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kovacevic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 12/23 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 19/34 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 30/57 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 7/15 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 27/39 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 51% | 22/43 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 68% | 17/25 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 48% | 12/25 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kovacevic 0, Arnaldi 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kovacevic
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aleksandar Kovacevic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 20, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 6, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 5, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kovacevic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 55% | 6/11 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.50 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -20.2% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Kovacevic's 30%).
| Opponent | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Nuno Borges | L 76 26 46 | W 63 67 76 |
| Damir Dzumhur | L 76 36 67 | L 67 76 67 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 67 | L 76 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 46 63 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 06 46 | L 16 64 36 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 62 26 36 | L 57 26 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 76 76 | W 64 64 |
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 63 67 | W 76 64 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 26 61 62 | L 06 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fery
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Luca Van Assche
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Felix Balshaw
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 25
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Karen Khachanov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Nuno Borges
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 28
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 38% | 50% |
| Sets won | 43% | 49% |
| Games won | 48% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kovacevic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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