Adam Walton vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adam Walton and Mackenzie McDonald have met 3 times since 2024; Adam Walton leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Shenzhen Challenger in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Walton has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Walton has taken 4 sets to McDonald's 2. Their most recent meeting: Adam Walton won at Newport Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Walton | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adam Walton | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 22/36 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 10/32 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 24/68 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 13/33 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 14/30 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 15/34 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 31/38 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 22/38 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Walton 2, McDonald 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Walton
💥 Big Hitter
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Adam Walton.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 8, 2026
Newport Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 25, 2024
Taipei 2 Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 19, 2024
Shenzhen Challenger
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Walton | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adam Walton | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 25/25 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 88% | 22/25 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 15/25 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 5/25 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–9 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.76 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -1.9% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -0.43u | -2.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Walton has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs McDonald's 40%).
| Opponent | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | L 75 67 46 | L 46 57 |
| Jaime Faria | L 64 46 67 | W 63 76 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 36 46 | W 64 62 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 64 | L 46 57 |
| Bernard Tomic | W 64 46 62 | W 75 76 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 63 67 61 | L 36 67 |
| Alex Bolt | W 62 36 76 | L 36 63 36 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 62 63 | W 36 62 75 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 26 75 62 | L 46 67 |
| Quentin Halys | W 63 63 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Jesper de Jong
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Ignacio Buse
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Nicolas Mejia
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Jenson Brooksby
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Michael Zheng
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–72 matches
| Metric | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 49% |
| Sets won | 49% | 48% |
| Games won | 50% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Walton | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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