ATP Challenger Tour · Final · VII CHALLENGER COSTA CALIDA REGION DE MURCIA
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 4,745 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Pablo Carreno Busta here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.03 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -32.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.83u | -5.13u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
2
Busta
2
Baena
Mar 20, 2026
VII CHALLENGER COSTA CALIDA REGION DE MURCIA
C Clay · Final
Feb 7, 2026
ABN AMRO Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 23, 2024
Mallorca
G Grass · Round of 32
Feb 20, 2016
Sao Paulo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Ofner | W 36 63 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 63 64 | L 64 57 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | L 46 26 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | L 16 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | L 16 36 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 70.2% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72% | 59.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 31.2% | 49.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.5% | 28.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.5% | 51.3% |
| BP Converted % | 46% | 49.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 17 | 20.3 |
| Net Pts Won % | 86.7% | 49.5% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.2% | 47.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 67% | 56% |
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Ofner
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Miguel Damas
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · Round of 32
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Final
Jun 14
Francesco Forti
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Semifinals
Jun 13
Raul Brancaccio
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Matchup overview
Pablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Carballes Baena face off in the Final at VII CHALLENGER COSTA CALIDA REGION DE MURCIA on Clay.
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2-2 over 4 previous meetings.
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
Roberto Carballes Baena is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sebastian Ofner (Jun 18).
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