Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta
#66 · 35 yrs · R
4 meetings · sets 6–4
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wPablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2016; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Sao Paulo in 2016 on clay. On clay courts Busta leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Busta leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Busta has taken 6 sets to Baena's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Murcia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2026
Murcia Challenger
C Clay · Final
Feb 7, 2026
ABN AMRO Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 23, 2024
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca
G Grass · 1st Round
Feb 20, 2016
Sao Paulo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | +0.8% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | -2.84u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Ofner | W 36 63 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 63 64 | L 64 57 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | L 46 26 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | L 16 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–65 matches
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 55% |
| Sets won | 60% | 54% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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