Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta
#65 · 35 yrs · R
4 meetings · sets 6–4
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wPablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2016; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Sao Paulo in 2016 on clay. On clay courts Busta leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Busta leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Busta has taken 6 sets to Baena's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Murcia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 8/18 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 14/29 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 10/15 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,152 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2026
Murcia Challenger
C Clay · Final
Feb 7, 2026
ABN AMRO Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 23, 2024
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca
G Grass · 1st Round
Feb 20, 2016
Sao Paulo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.41 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -16.8% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.18u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Sanchez Jover | W 76 61 | L |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 36 63 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | W 63 64 | L 64 57 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–58 matches
| Metric | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 51% |
| Sets won | 58% | 51% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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