ATP Masters 1000 · 1st Round Qualifying · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kjaer
🛡️ The Spoiler
Maestrelli
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 56% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 199 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Francesco Maestrelli here.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 6–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.77 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -21.3% | -32.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.41u | -4.59u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Kjaer
0
Maestrelli
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kjaer | Maestrelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 8/16 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/15 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kjaer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Maestrelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Moez Echargui | W 61 60 | L 36 26 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 26 36 | L 67 26 |
| Remy Bertola | L 57 16 | W 76 64 |
| Dimitar Kuzmanov | W 57 61 75 | W 76 61 |
| James McCabe | W 46 63 76 | L 36 76 46 |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | W 63 64 | W 76 64 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | W 76 67 62 | W 62 16 61 |
| Hugo Gaston | L 46 63 16 | L 67 16 |
| Francesco Passaro | W 64 64 | L 36 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 16 36 | W 64 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.2% | 64.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.9% | 76.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.7% | 56.2% |
| Aces / Match | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.9% | 57.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.8% | 29.3% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 53.2% | 58% |
| BP Converted % | 43.6% | 42.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.8 | 18.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.6 | 24.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 79.1% | 69.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54% | 54.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 25% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Moez Echargui
Mutua Madrid Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 21
Francesco Maestrelli
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Marco Trungelliti
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Damir Dzumhur
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Henrique Rocha
Grand Prix Hassan II · 2nd Round Qualifying
Mar 30
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Daniel Merida
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Alexander Blockx
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Botic van de Zandschulp
Tiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · Round of 32
Mar 31
Murphy Cassone
Miami Open presented by Itau · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 16
Match summary
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, ranked 140th, will face Francesco Maestrelli, ranked 112th, in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay on April 20, 2026. Both players will be competing on the outdoor clay courts in Madrid, a surface where consistency and baseline strength matter greatly.
Kjaer and Maestrelli have never met before, so there is no head to head history between them. They do share some recent common opponents, having both played against Hugo Gaston, Maximus Jones, Pablo Llamas Ruiz, and Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg in recent weeks.
Kjaer has won only one of his last five matches but holds a 50% win rate over his last ten. Maestrelli has struggled more severely, losing his last six consecutive matches and winning just four of his last ten. Both players last competed nine days ago.
On clay, Kjaer has a 60% win rate over recent matches, while Maestrelli sits at 55%. Kjaer is known as a spoiler type who can disrupt favored opponents, whereas Maestrelli tends to perform better when leading matches. The Madrid clay will test both players' ability to sustain long rallies and control the baseline.
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