ATP Masters 1000 · 1st Round Qualifying · Mutua Madrid Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kjaer
⚙️ Grinder
Maestrelli
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 57% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 4,616 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Francesco Maestrelli here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–8 | 0–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.88 | 2.49 |
| ROI % | -32.8% | -100.0% |
| Units P/L | -4.92u | -8.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Kjaer
0
Maestrelli
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kjaer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Maestrelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Gentzsch | L 67 26 | L 46 46 |
| Moez Echargui | W 61 60 | L 36 26 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 26 36 | L 67 26 |
| Dimitar Kuzmanov | W 57 61 75 | W 76 61 |
| James McCabe | W 46 63 76 | L 36 76 46 |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | W 63 64 | W 76 64 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | W 76 67 62 | W 62 16 61 |
| Hugo Gaston | L 46 63 16 | L 67 16 |
| Maximus Jones | W 63 60 | W 64 64 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W 36 76 63 | W 36 61 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Kjaer | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.7% | 63.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.9% | 70.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 47.3% | 46.6% |
| Aces / Match | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.3% | 64.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.9% | 57.1% |
| BP Converted % | 38.1% | 50.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 16.9 | 18 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 27.6 | 34.3 |
| Net Pts Won % | 66.9% | 55.8% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.7% | 52.1% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 53% | 11% |
Last five matches per player
Mackenzie McDonald
Lexus Nottingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 14
August Holmgren
Lexus Ilkley Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
Mackenzie McDonald
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 2
Tom Gentzsch
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 24
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 24
Arthur Gea
Lexus Ilkley Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
Rio Noguchi
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 24
Roberto Carballes Baena
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 20
Kimmer Coppejans
Moldova Open · Round of 32
May 13
Roberto Bautista Agut
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Match summary
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, ranked 140th, will face Francesco Maestrelli, ranked 112th, in the first round of qualifying at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay on April 20, 2026. Both players will be competing on the outdoor clay courts in Madrid, a surface where consistency and baseline strength matter greatly.
Kjaer and Maestrelli have never met before, so there is no head to head history between them. They do share some recent common opponents, having both played against Hugo Gaston, Maximus Jones, Pablo Llamas Ruiz, and Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg in recent weeks.
Kjaer has won only one of his last five matches but holds a 50% win rate over his last ten. Maestrelli has struggled more severely, losing his last six consecutive matches and winning just four of his last ten. Both players last competed nine days ago.
On clay, Kjaer has a 60% win rate over recent matches, while Maestrelli sits at 55%. Kjaer is known as a spoiler type who can disrupt favored opponents, whereas Maestrelli tends to perform better when leading matches. The Madrid clay will test both players' ability to sustain long rallies and control the baseline.
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