Grand Slam · 1st Round Qualifying · Roland Garros
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kjaer
🪃 Counterpuncher
Bailly
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Gilles Arnaud Bailly are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 3,556 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kjaer | Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–9 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -18.8% | -25.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.19u | -2.83u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Kjaer
0
Bailly
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kjaer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Bailly's 25%).
| Opponent | Kjaer | Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Trungelliti | L 46 64 46 | W 63 76 |
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | W 62 63 | L 36 76 36 |
| Jack Pinnington Jones | L 36 26 | L 60 16 46 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | W 76 67 62 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Kjaer | Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.7% | 61.7% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 67.9% | 59.4% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.2% | 51.4% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3 | 2.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.5% | 50.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.5% | 35.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50.3% | 50.5% |
| BP Converted % | 40.8% | 52.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.1 | 18.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.3 | 30.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.6% | 65.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.8% | 49% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 54% | 45% |
Last five matches per player
Mackenzie McDonald
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 3
Tom Gentzsch
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 24
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 24
Miomir Kecmanovic
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 7
Dalibor Svrcina
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 6
Match summary
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer meets Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the first round of Roland Garros qualifying on May 18, with the clay courts of Paris hosting two players ranked 123rd and 208th respectively. Neither has faced the other before, leaving this matchup without prior history between them.
Both men arrive in similar form. Budkov Kjaer has won 3 of his last 5 matches and sits at 6-4 over 10 outings; Bailly has also claimed 3 of 5 but trails at 5-5 across 10. On clay, their surface records are identical at 11-9. They have split encounters against common opponents, with Budkov Kjaer defeating Francesco Maestrelli while losing to Dalibor Svrcina and Marco Trungelliti. Bailly produced the opposite results in those same matchups.
Budkov Kjaer operates as a counterpuncher, reading pace and redirecting rather than dictating from the baseline. Bailly plays with physical aggression, building points through intensity and forward momentum. On clay, counterpunchers can thrive against aggressive opponents who overshoot angles; aggressors gain rhythm when they establish control early. The match will hinge on whether Bailly can sustain pressure from the start or whether Budkov Kjaer can force extended rallies that disrupt his rhythm.
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