ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 16 · ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 469 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Lorenzo Musetti plays Alex de Minaur.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 12–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | -4.6% |
| Units P/L | -1.48u | -0.88u |
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
4
Musetti
1
Minaur
Nov 11, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 30, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Apr 12, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Semifinals
Jun 18, 2024
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Round of 32
Jan 5, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Musetti's 50%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 63 | W 64 60 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | L 75 46 67 | W 62 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 75 76 | W 60 63 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 64 | W 36 64 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 36 | W 76 67 64 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 76 62 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 63 64 | W 64 63 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | W 64 63 | L 36 46 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 67 57 | L 46 63 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 63 26 36 | W 76 26 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Musetti | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.9% | 62.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70% | 64.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| Aces / Match | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60% | 55.7% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 43.1% | 50.5% |
| BP Converted % | 29.2% | 41.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.9 | 18.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.1 | 34.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.6% | 71.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.8% | 49.1% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 60% | 54% |
Last five matches per player
Casper Ruud
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 16
May 12
Francisco Cerundolo
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Jiri Lehecka
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 16
Apr 28
Tallon Griekspoor
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 32
Apr 26
Matchup overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur face off in the Round of 16 at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid on Clay.
Lorenzo Musetti leads 4-1 over 5 previous meetings.
Lorenzo Musetti is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Casper Ruud (May 12).
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Denis Shapovalov (Jun 17).
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