WTA 1000 · Semifinals · Cincinnati
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,410 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Karolina Muchova plays Aryna Sabalenka.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muchova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.46 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +90.4% | -19.9% |
| Units P/L | +13.56u | -3.19u |
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
3
Muchova
2
Sabalenka
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 25, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 14, 2023
Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
May 29, 2023
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 22, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Muchova's 50%).
| Opponent | Muchova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Keys | L | W 63 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 62 16 26 | L |
| Naomi Osaka | L 46 67 | W |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 36 26 | W 76 76 |
| Sorana Cirstea | W 62 63 | L 62 36 57 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 62 63 | W 61 64 |
| Elise Mertens | W 16 63 60 | W 64 76 |
| Coco Gauff | W 63 57 63 | W 62 46 63 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 64 26 64 | W 62 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 57 16 | W 64 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Muchova | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 67% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 63.2% | 69.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 46.1% | 53.1% |
| Aces / Match | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1 | 3.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.8% | 58.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 34.6% | 36.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.6% | 57.8% |
| BP Converted % | 57.4% | 39.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49% | 54.1% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Karolina Muchova and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Semifinals at Cincinnati on Hard.
Karolina Muchova leads 3-2 over 5 previous meetings.
Karolina Muchova is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Madison Keys (Jun 18).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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