WTA 1000 · Round of 64 · Indian Wells
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,602 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Jasmine Paolini plays Aryna Sabalenka.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -28.0% | -19.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.80u | -3.19u |
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
1
Paolini
6
Sabalenka
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 14, 2025
Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 18, 2025
Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2024
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 2, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 7, 2022
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Nov 9, 2020
Linz
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paolini's 30%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | W 64 76 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 61 62 | W 62 63 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 36 62 64 | W 46 62 64 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 57 36 | L 62 26 67 |
| Coco Gauff | L 36 26 | W 62 46 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | W 64 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | W 76 76 |
| Cristina Bucsa | L 57 46 | W 60 61 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 63 60 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 36 | W 64 26 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Paolini | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.4% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 62.9% | 69.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 42.7% | 53.1% |
| Aces / Match | 1.2 | 3.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 52.8% | 58.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 37.5% | 36.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48.5% | 57.8% |
| BP Converted % | 28.8% | 39.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.3% | 54.1% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Jasmine Paolini and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Round of 64 at Indian Wells on Hard.
Jasmine Paolini leads 1-6 over 7 previous meetings.
Jasmine Paolini is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sandy Sierra (May 27).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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