WTA 1000 · Semifinals · Miami
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,602 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Aryna Sabalenka plays Jasmine Paolini.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–4 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 1.61 |
| ROI % | -19.9% | -28.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.19u | -2.80u |
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
6
Sabalenka
1
Paolini
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 14, 2025
Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 18, 2025
Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2024
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 2, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 7, 2022
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Nov 9, 2020
Linz
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paolini's 30%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 61 62 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 76 | L 64 67 36 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | L 57 36 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 46 62 64 | W 36 62 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 36 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 67 62 63 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 60 61 | L 57 46 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 26 67 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 76 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.9% | 63.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.5% | 62.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.1% | 42.7% |
| Aces / Match | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.1% | 52.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.8% | 37.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.8% | 48.5% |
| BP Converted % | 39.8% | 28.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.1% | 48.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini face off in the Semifinals at Miami on Hard.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 6-1 over 7 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
Jasmine Paolini is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sandy Sierra (May 27).
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