ATP 500 · Finals · Rotterdam
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sinner
🎯 Baseliner
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 57% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 331 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jannik Sinner here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sinner | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 22–2 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.10 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | +1.1% | -20.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.26u | -3.31u |
Prior meetings and scores · 11 career meetings
11
Sinner
0
Minaur
Nov 15, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 25, 2025
Vienna
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 30, 2025
Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 18, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 10, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 18, 2024
Rotterdam
H Hard · Finals
Aug 13, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Finals
May 4, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 16, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Nov 12, 2020
Sofia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sinner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Minaur's 60%).
| Opponent | Sinner | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 76 63 | L 57 26 16 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 63 60 | W 64 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 64 | W 76 67 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 62 62 | W 63 64 75 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 61 64 | W 64 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 76 76 | L 46 46 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 63 62 | W 63 76 |
| Novak Djokovic | L 63 36 64 46 46 | L 61 46 46 46 |
| Ben Shelton | W 63 64 64 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sinner | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.4% | 60.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 65.2% | 70% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51% | 53.1% |
| Aces / Match | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 52.8% | 53.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 19% | 27.3% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 42.8% | 47.2% |
| BP Converted % | 17.6% | 47.4% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15 | 17.1 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 22.5 | 30.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 55% | 72% |
| Total Pts Won % | 44.4% | 49.8% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 88% | 60% |
Last five matches per player
Elmer Moller
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 32
Apr 26
Benjamin Bonzi
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 24
Carlos Alcaraz
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 12
Alexander Zverev
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Rafael Jodar
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 24
Hamad Medjedovic
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 16
Apr 15
Sebastian Ofner
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Alexander Blockx
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Matchup overview
Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur face off in the Finals at Rotterdam on Hard.
Jannik Sinner leads 11-0 over 11 previous meetings.
Jannik Sinner is 5-0 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Elmer Moller (Apr 26).
Alex de Minaur is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (Apr 24).
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