ATP 500 · Semifinals · Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
🤖 Servebot
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 6,422 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–7 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.48 | 2.02 |
| ROI % | +3.7% | -23.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.77u | -3.01u |
Prior meetings and scores · 8 career meetings
7
Tiafoe
1
Nakashima
Feb 27, 2026
Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 5, 2025
Houston
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 26, 2024
Tokyo
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 29, 2022
Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 25, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 13, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 15, 2021
Acapulco
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 6, 2020
Dallas
H Hard · Round of 16
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 5 or more | 81% | 17/21 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 10 or more | 29% | 6/21 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/14 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Tiafoe's 40%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Damm | W 64 75 67 75 | W 76 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | L 67 75 46 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 61 62 | W 75 63 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | W 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 63 57 | W 76 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 46 57 | L 46 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 26 | L 26 67 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 63 16 57 | W 75 63 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 46 | L 76 26 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Tiafoe | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.4% | 67.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.6% | 76.3% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 52% | 52.5% |
| Aces / Match | 7.8 | 9.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.1% | 50.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 25.2% | 24.3% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48.2% | 51.3% |
| BP Converted % | 36.6% | 42.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.4 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.8 | 22 |
| Net Pts Won % | 77.2% | 73.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.8% | 51% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 67% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Tommy Paul
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Semifinals
Apr 4
Alexei Popyrin
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Quarterfinals
Apr 3
Rinky Hijikata
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Round of 16
Apr 2
Jannik Sinner
Miami Open presented by Itau · Quarterfinals
Mar 26
Terence Atmane
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 16
Mar 24
Arthur Fils
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 16
Apr 16
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Round of 16
Apr 2
Martin Damm
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Round of 32
Mar 31
Marin Cilic
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 21
Matchup overview
Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima face off in the Semifinals at Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC on Hard.
Frances Tiafoe leads 7-1 over 8 previous meetings.
Frances Tiafoe is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Tommy Paul (Apr 4).
Brandon Nakashima is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Arthur Fils (Apr 16).
Share this match
