Grand Slam · Round of 16 · US Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 63% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 90 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Daniil Medvedev here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 9–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +7.9% | -15.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.50u | -2.31u |
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
8
Medvedev
4
Minaur
Oct 10, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 10, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 16
Nov 12, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 2, 2024
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 16
Sep 30, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 4, 2023
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 11, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 2, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 4, 2022
ATP Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 5, 2020
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Medvedev's 50%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini | L 06 06 | W 61 76 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | W 76 26 62 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 46 | L 36 67 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 67 | L 57 26 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 57 26 16 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 64 62 | W 63 62 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 62 63 | W 64 62 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 67 63 36 | W 64 63 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 67 | W 64 61 61 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 62 | W 63 64 75 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Medvedev | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 69.7% | 61% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.1% | 70.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.3% | 54.2% |
| Aces / Match | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 48.9% | 53.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 35.6% | 27.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54% | 47% |
| BP Converted % | 35.9% | 48.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 19.8 | 17.1 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.1 | 30.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 74.6% | 72% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.5% | 50.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 73% | 67% |
Last five matches per player
Flavio Cobolli
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 16
Apr 28
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 32
Apr 27
Fabian Marozsan
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 25
Matteo Berrettini
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 8
Francisco Cerundolo
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 23
Rafael Jodar
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 24
Hamad Medjedovic
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 16
Apr 15
Sebastian Ofner
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Alexander Blockx
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Matchup overview
Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur face off in the Round of 16 at US Open on Hard.
Daniil Medvedev leads 8-4 over 12 previous meetings.
Daniil Medvedev is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Flavio Cobolli (Apr 28).
Alex de Minaur is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (Apr 24).
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