Grand Slam · Round of 16 · Australian Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 446 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Carlos Alcaraz plays Tommy Paul.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | +1.59u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
5
Alcaraz
2
Paul
Jan 25, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 3, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 10, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Aug 17, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 11, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 28, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 10, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paul's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 67 76 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | L 63 36 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 67 76 36 76 16 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 75 46 | L 46 36 |
| Joao Fonseca | W 64 64 | L 26 36 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 63 | W 61 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 67 75 63 | W 64 63 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | W 76 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 64.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 70.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 50.7% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 5.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.3% | 48.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 42.1% | 33.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.7% | 53.2% |
| BP Converted % | 51.9% | 43.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.8 | 25.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.8 | 33.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 62.9% | 75.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56.3% | 51.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul face off in the Round of 16 at Australian Open on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 5-2 over 7 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Zachary Svajda (Jun 15).
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