ATP 500 · Quarterfinals · Tokyo
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,547 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Carlos Alcaraz plays Brandon Nakashima.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 2.11 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | -46.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | -3.68u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
3
Alcaraz
0
Nakashima
Sep 28, 2025
Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 10, 2021
Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 12, 2021
Oeiras 3
C Clay · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Nakashima's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 75 63 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 62 64 | L 75 16 67 67 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 61 | L 26 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | W 26 62 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 26 67 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | W 76 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 67 75 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 67 75 63 | L 36 46 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 60 63 | W 63 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | W 62 75 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 65.3% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 74.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 49.9% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.3% | 38.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 42.1% | 28.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.7% | 56.4% |
| BP Converted % | 51.9% | 56.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.8 | 20.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.8 | 22.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 62.9% | 72.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56.3% | 52.4% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Francisco Cerundolo
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 18
Ignacio Buse
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Marton Fucsovics
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 16
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima face off in the Quarterfinals at Tokyo on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-0 over 3 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Brandon Nakashima is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Francisco Cerundolo (Jun 18).
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