WTA 500 · Round of 16 · Dubai
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 57% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 4,155 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jelena Ostapenko here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 9–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.51 | 1.83 |
| ROI % | -22.7% | -2.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.08u | -0.34u |
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
3
Sabalenka
1
Ostapenko
Apr 14, 2025
Stuttgart
C Clay · Final
May 6, 2024
Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 20, 2023
Dubai
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 9, 2019
Zhengzhou
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Ostapenko's 33%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L | L 64 36 26 |
| Naomi Osaka | W | L 26 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 16 67 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | W 46 64 64 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | L 36 46 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 64 46 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 57 62 75 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | L 36 26 |
| Rebecca Sramkova | W 46 63 61 | W 64 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.9% | 58.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.5% | 66.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.1% | 43.9% |
| Aces / Match | 3.2 | 4 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 7.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.1% | 58.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.8% | 41.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.8% | 61.1% |
| BP Converted % | 39.8% | 56.1% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.1% | 53% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko face off in the Round of 16 at Dubai on Hard.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 3-1 over 4 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Jessica Pegula (Jun 20).
Jelena Ostapenko is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Magda Linette (May 27).
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