ATP Masters 1000 · Semifinals · ATP Masters 1000 Canada
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 2,981 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Andrey Rublev here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 1–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.72 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | -11.3% | -63.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.14u | -4.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
3
Rublev
1
Arnaldi
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 74% | 14/19 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 12/19 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 4/19 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/19 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/7 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Rublev's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 62 63 | W 75 75 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 64 63 | W 64 76 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | L 63 62 57 46 36 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 62 63 | W 61 57 76 |
| Jacob Fearnley | W 61 64 | L 57 26 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 63 46 46 | W 75 64 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 67 36 | L 36 36 76 16 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 57 36 46 | W 57 26 63 64 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 67 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.4% | 58.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70% | 64.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51% | 47.9% |
| Aces / Match | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 57.7% | 43.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 30.5% | 35% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50.5% | 53% |
| BP Converted % | 38.9% | 54.3% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 25.1 | 33.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 66.5% | 65.3% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.5% | 50.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 58% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Final
Apr 19
Hamad Medjedovic
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Semifinals
Apr 18
Tomas Machac
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Lorenzo Sonego
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 16
Apr 16
Mariano Navone
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Quentin Halys
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Cristian Garin
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 64
Apr 6
Alexandre Muller
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 5
Vit Kopriva
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Alex Molcan
Tiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · Round of 32
Mar 31
Matchup overview
Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi face off in the Semifinals at ATP Masters 1000 Canada on Hard.
Andrey Rublev leads 3-1 over 4 previous meetings.
Andrey Rublev is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Arthur Fils (Apr 19).
Matteo Arnaldi is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Quentin Halys (Apr 11).
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