ATP 250 · Round of 16 · Antwerp
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🎯 Baseliner
Baena
🛡️ The Spoiler
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 59% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 757 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alex de Minaur here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -4.6% | -32.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.88u | -5.13u |
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
4
Minaur
0
Baena
Jul 1, 2025
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Oct 16, 2024
Antwerp
H Hard · Round of 16
May 11, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 64
Apr 6, 2018
Alicante
H Hard · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 13%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | L 67 63 57 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | W 62 64 62 | W 60 63 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | L 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 46 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 57 67 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | L 67 57 64 26 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 62 | L 16 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.5% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.5% | 59.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.1% | 49.2% |
| Aces / Match | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 55.7% | 49.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 30.4% | 28.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| BP Converted % | 41.8% | 49.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.8 | 18 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 34.4 | 28.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.7% | 53.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.1% | 47.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Ofner
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Miguel Damas
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · Round of 32
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Final
Jun 14
Francesco Forti
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Semifinals
Jun 13
Raul Brancaccio
SIC EUROPE OMAG OPEN · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Matchup overview
Alex de Minaur and Roberto Carballes Baena face off in the Round of 16 at Antwerp on Hard.
Alex de Minaur leads 4-0 over 4 previous meetings.
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Denis Shapovalov (Jun 17).
Roberto Carballes Baena is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sebastian Ofner (Jun 18).
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