Pavel Kotov vs Rio NoguchiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pavel Kotov and Rio Noguchi have met 1 time since 2026; Pavel Kotov leads 1–0. Across all meetings Kotov has taken 2 sets to Noguchi's 0. Their most recent meeting: Pavel Kotov won at Guangzhou Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kotov | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pavel Kotov | Rio Noguchi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 18/32 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 5/12 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 19/44 | 37% | 25/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 13/29 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 77% | 10/13 | 65% | 20/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 19/25 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 82% | 27/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kotov 1, Noguchi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kotov
🤖 Servebot
Noguchi
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pavel Kotov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 18, 2026
Guangzhou Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kotov | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pavel Kotov | Rio Noguchi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 11/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 2.06 |
| ROI % | +24.1% | -35.1% |
| Units P/L | +3.86u | -5.26u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 11 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | 754 mi · 1,213 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kotov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Noguchi's 56%).
| Opponent | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Marat Sharipov | L 06 36 | W 64 64 |
| Alexis Galarneau | W 36 61 61 | L 46 26 |
| Jake Delaney | W 76 76 | W 62 64 |
| Mark Lajal | W 36 64 64 | L 46 46 |
| Keegan Smith | W 64 64 | L 36 64 26 |
| Jie Cui | L 26 63 46 | L 67 67 |
| Fajing Sun | W 76 36 63 | W 76 46 76 |
| Clement Chidekh | W 16 61 76 | W 62 62 |
| Harry Wendelken | W 46 63 64 | W 64 26 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Tallon Griekspoor
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Aleksandar Vukic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Martin Damm
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Shintaro Mochizuki
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Luca Castelnuovo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Bernard Tomic
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Alexandre Muller
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Dalibor Svrcina
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Masamichi Imamura
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Colin Sinclair
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Kaichi Uchida
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Omar Jasika
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Rigele Te
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–67 matches
| Metric | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 55% |
| Sets won | 64% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kotov | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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