Mark Lajal vs Rio NoguchiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mark Lajal and Rio Noguchi have met 4 times since 2024; Mark Lajal leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Granby Challenger in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Lajal leads 3–1. Lajal has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Lajal has taken 7 sets to Noguchi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mark Lajal won at Lincoln Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Lajal | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 24/42 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 10/27 | 31% | 9/29 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 28/69 | 36% | 24/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 22/50 | 41% | 13/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 41% | 7/17 | 65% | 20/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 15/34 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 31/38 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 24/38 | 69% | 22/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Lajal 3, Noguchi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Lajal
👑 The Complete Package
Noguchi
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mark Lajal.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 17, 2026
Lincoln Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 30, 2024
Zhangjiagang Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 22, 2024
Chicago
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 16, 2024
Granby Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Lajal | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 28/28 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 3 or more | 96% | 27/28 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 5 or more | 79% | 22/28 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 6/28 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/28 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/28 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 20–8 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.99 |
| ROI % | +8.8% | -30.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.47u | -4.26u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 5 |
| Distance | 461 mi · 742 km | 754 mi · 1,213 km |
| Route | FRA | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Noguchi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Lajal's 50%).
| Opponent | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Dalibor Svrcina | W 57 64 63 | L 46 16 |
| Pavel Kotov | L 63 46 46 | L 16 67 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | L 46 16 | L 64 46 26 |
| Keegan Rice | W 63 62 | W 36 64 60 |
| Braden Shick | W 62 62 | W 57 63 62 |
| Clement Chidekh | W 76 75 | W 62 62 |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu | L | W 75 62 |
| Paul Jubb | L 76 26 67 | W 64 46 63 |
| Harry Wendelken | W 64 61 | W 64 26 64 |
| Fajing Sun | L 63 36 46 | W 76 46 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lucas Poullain
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Thomas Faurel
St. Tropez Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
David Goffin
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Titouan Droguet
Cassis Challenger · Final
Sep 13
Daniel Masur
Cassis Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Robin Bertrand
Cassis Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Cassis Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Lenny Couturier
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexandre Muller
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Dalibor Svrcina
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Masamichi Imamura
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Colin Sinclair
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Kaichi Uchida
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Omar Jasika
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Rigele Te
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–69 matches
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 56% |
| Sets won | 57% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.