Mark Lajal vs Rio NoguchiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mark Lajal and Rio Noguchi have met 4 times since 2024; Mark Lajal leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Granby Challenger in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Lajal leads 3–1. Lajal has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Lajal has taken 7 sets to Noguchi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mark Lajal won at Lincoln Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Lajal | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 20/38 | 58% | 19/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 12/24 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 30/62 | 40% | 24/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 18/45 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 7/15 | 68% | 21/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 18/32 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 29/36 | 77% | 24/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 20/36 | 61% | 19/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Lajal 3, Noguchi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Lajal
🤖 Servebot
Noguchi
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 58% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 927 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mark Lajal.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 17, 2026
Lincoln Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 30, 2024
Zhangjiagang Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 22, 2024
Chicago
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 16, 2024
Granby Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Lajal | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | ||
| 1 or more | 96% | 23/24 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 3 or more | 96% | 23/24 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 5 or more | 79% | 19/24 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 8/24 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–9 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.79 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | +0.2% | -6.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.05u | -0.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 2,012 mi · 3,238 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Noguchi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Lajal's 60%).
| Opponent | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L 46 46 | L 36 26 |
| Keegan Rice | W 63 62 | W 36 64 60 |
| Braden Shick | W 62 62 | W 57 63 62 |
| Clement Chidekh | W 76 75 | W 62 62 |
| Paul Jubb | L 76 26 67 | W 64 46 63 |
| Harry Wendelken | W 64 61 | W 64 26 64 |
| Fajing Sun | L 63 36 46 | W 76 46 76 |
| Marat Sharipov | W 64 64 | W 64 64 |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu | L 67 76 36 | W 75 62 |
| Maximus Jones | W 75 57 76 | L 64 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
J.J. Wolf
Vancouver Challenger · Final
Aug 1
Keegan Rice
Vancouver Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 31
Braden Shick
Vancouver Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 30
Clement Chidekh
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Evan Zhu
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alex Michelsen
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Charles Broom
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Keegan Rice
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Braden Shick
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Mark Lajal
Lincoln Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Lincoln Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Charles Broom
Lincoln Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 13
Andre Ilagan
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex Martinez
Cary Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–62 matches
| Metric | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 55% |
| Sets won | 57% | 53% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Lajal | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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