Kaichi Uchida vs Rio NoguchiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kaichi Uchida and Rio Noguchi have met 6 times since 2024; Rio Noguchi leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Nonthaburi 1 in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Noguchi leads 4–2. Across all meetings Uchida has taken 7 sets to Noguchi's 9. Their most recent meeting: Rio Noguchi won at Guangzhou Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Uchida | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 14/22 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 11/35 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/57 | 37% | 25/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 10/23 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 13/31 | 65% | 20/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 6/14 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 17/24 | 82% | 27/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 14/24 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Uchida 1, Noguchi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Uchida
🤖 Servebot
Noguchi
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Kaichi Uchida.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Sep 14, 2026
Guangzhou Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 15, 2025
Shenzhen Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 28, 2025
Zhangjiagang Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 21, 2024
Chicago
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 9, 2024
Nonthaburi 2 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 1, 2024
Nonthaburi 1
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Uchida | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.06 |
| ROI % | -60.0% | -35.1% |
| Units P/L | -5.40u | -5.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 765 mi · 1,231 km | 754 mi · 1,213 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Noguchi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Uchida's 29%).
| Opponent | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Masamichi Imamura | W 76 62 | W 61 64 |
| Alexis Galarneau | L 26 16 | L 46 26 |
| Fajing Sun | L 46 26 | W 76 46 76 |
| Liam Broady | L 67 16 | W 61 63 |
| Marat Sharipov | L 16 26 | W 64 64 |
| James Duckworth | L 36 67 | L 67 26 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | W 46 63 64 | W 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ilya Ivashka
Jinan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 12
Jesse Delaney
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Ryan Seggerman
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Masamichi Imamura
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Rio Noguchi
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Linang Xiao
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Hanyi Liu
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 31
Alexandre Muller
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Dalibor Svrcina
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Masamichi Imamura
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Colin Sinclair
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Kaichi Uchida
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Omar Jasika
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Rigele Te
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–67 matches
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 39% | 55% |
| Sets won | 41% | 53% |
| Games won | 47% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
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