Kaichi Uchida vs Rio NoguchiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kaichi Uchida and Rio Noguchi have met 5 times since 2024; Rio Noguchi leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Nonthaburi 1 in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Noguchi leads 3–2. Uchida has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Uchida has taken 6 sets to Noguchi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Kaichi Uchida won at Shenzhen Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Uchida | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 26/37 | 58% | 19/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 10/32 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 21/69 | 40% | 24/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 23/38 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 41% | 12/29 | 68% | 21/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 7/17 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 30/35 | 77% | 24/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 26/35 | 61% | 19/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Uchida 1, Noguchi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Uchida
🤖 Servebot
Noguchi
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 58% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 927 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Kaichi Uchida.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 15, 2025
Shenzhen Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 28, 2025
Zhangjiagang Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 21, 2024
Chicago
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 9, 2024
Nonthaburi 2 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 1, 2024
Nonthaburi 1
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Uchida | Noguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 1/4 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–6 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.16 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -6.1% |
| Units P/L | -6.00u | -0.85u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Noguchi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Uchida's 25%).
| Opponent | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Broom | L 67 57 | L 26 46 |
| Alexis Galarneau | L 26 16 | L 46 26 |
| Fajing Sun | L 46 26 | W 76 46 76 |
| Liam Broady | L 67 16 | W 61 63 |
| Marat Sharipov | L 16 26 | W 64 64 |
| James Duckworth | L 36 67 | L 67 26 |
| Oliver Crawford | W 67 63 64 | W 64 16 64 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | W 46 63 64 | W 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tianhui Zhang
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 26
Alexis Galarneau
Granby Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Milavsky
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 9
Jack Kennedy
Cary Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 29
Bernard Tomic
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Quinn Vandecasteele
Dublin Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 19
Max Houkes
Tunis Challenger · 1st Round
May 11
Charles Broom
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Keegan Rice
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Braden Shick
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Mark Lajal
Lincoln Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Lincoln Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Charles Broom
Lincoln Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 13
Andre Ilagan
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex Martinez
Cary Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–69 matches
| Metric | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 55% |
| Sets won | 53% | 53% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Uchida | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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