Novak Djokovic vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Novak Djokovic and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo in 2017 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. On clay courts Djokovic leads 2–0. Across all meetings Djokovic has taken 8 sets to Busta's 5. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Olympics - Tokyo (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Djokovic | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Novak Djokovic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 5/10 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 75% | 3/4 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 57% | 8/14 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 5/14 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 57% | 12/21 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 75% | 3/4 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 7/10 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 5/10 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Djokovic 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Djokovic
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 31, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · Olympic Bronze
Oct 7, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Sep 7, 2020
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 6, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 10, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Apr 13, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Djokovic | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Novak Djokovic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.71 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -12.4% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Djokovic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Busta's 67%).
| Opponent | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 62 46 46 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 62 67 63 | L 61 57 26 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 76 61 | L 26 16 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 63 62 62 | W 64 46 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 64 76 | W 63 62 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 63 62 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 10
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Roman Safiullin
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Arthur Rinderknech
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Yibing Wu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Joao Fonseca
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–65 matches
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 74% | 65% |
| Sets won | 65% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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