Novak Djokovic vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Novak Djokovic and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo in 2017 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. On clay courts Djokovic leads 2–0. Across all meetings Djokovic has taken 8 sets to Busta's 5. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Olympics - Tokyo (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Djokovic | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Novak Djokovic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 4/9 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 75% | 3/4 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 62% | 8/13 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 1/1 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 80% | 4/5 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 63% | 5/8 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 4/8 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Djokovic 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Djokovic
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Novak Djokovic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 31, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · Olympic Bronze
Oct 7, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Sep 7, 2020
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 6, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 10, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Apr 13, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Djokovic | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Novak Djokovic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.67 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | +17.7% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.42u | -2.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Djokovic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 76 36 63 67 76 | L 36 64 16 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 76 61 | W 46 76 64 |
| Mariano Navone | L 67 75 64 26 16 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W | L 46 26 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 62 46 46 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 63 62 67 63 | L 61 57 26 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 63 62 62 | L |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 64 76 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hubert Hurkacz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Alexander Zverev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Bu Yunchaokete
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Nuno Borges
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 28–58 matches
| Metric | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 62% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Djokovic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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