Mateus Alves vs Victor PagottoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mateus Alves and Victor Pagotto have met 2 times since 2026; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at M15 Maringa in 2026 on clay. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Pagotto leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Alves has taken 2 sets to Pagotto's 2. Their most recent meeting: Victor Pagotto won at M15 Porto Velho (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alves | Pagotto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mateus Alves | Victor Pagotto | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 89% | 40/45 | 84% | 16/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 11/22 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 16/67 | 29% | 13/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 29/42 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 82% | 14/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 41/46 | 82% | 18/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 87% | 40/46 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alves 1, Pagotto 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alves
👑 The Complete Package
Pagotto
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 55% vs 🧱 The Wall across 169 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mateus Alves.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 6, 2026
M15 Porto Velho
H Hard · Final
May 20, 2026
M15 Maringa
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alves | Pagotto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mateus Alves | Victor Pagotto | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 22/22 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 91% | 20/22 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 17/22 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 10 or more | 9% | 2/22 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 19–4 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.22 | 2.76 |
| ROI % | -5.7% | +118.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.31u | +8.28u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | BRA | BRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alves has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Pagotto's 50%).
| Opponent | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Boscardin Dias | L 57 46 | L 46 26 |
| Pedro Sakamoto | W 64 62 | L 46 76 46 |
| Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | W 76 64 | W 75 63 |
| Wilson Leite | W 75 62 | L 57 26 |
| Manuel Mouilleron Salvo | W 61 62 | L 46 64 36 |
| Victor Bini | W 61 60 | W 62 62 |
| Gabriel Schenekenberg | W 64 60 | W 60 62 |
| Joao Eduardo Schiessl | L 26 57 | W 76 62 |
| Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava | W 63 76 | W |
| Francisco Fontes Damorim | L 75 63 | L 06 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Gonzalo Villanueva
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jose Pereira
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Curitiba · Final
Sep 27
Wilson Leite
M15 Curitiba · Semifinals
Sep 26
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
M15 Curitiba · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Manuel Mouilleron Salvo
M15 Curitiba · 1st Round
Sep 23
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Leme · Final
Sep 13
Pedro Boscardin Dias
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Bruno Fernandez
Curitiba Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Wilson Leite
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Victor Bini
M15 Curitiba · 1st Round
Sep 23
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Leme · Semifinals
Sep 12
Nicolas Garcia Longo
M15 Leme · 2nd Round
Sep 11
Gabriel Schenekenberg
M15 Leme · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–67 matches
| Metric | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 42% |
| Sets won | 67% | 47% |
| Games won | 57% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ITF M15 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alves | Pagotto |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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