Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#10 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
4w3 meetings · sets 6–0
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleMarta Kostyuk and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2024; Marta Kostyuk leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Kostyuk leads 2–0. Kostyuk has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kostyuk has taken 6 sets to Maria's 0. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole - Rouen (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kostyuk | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marta Kostyuk | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 4/10 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/46 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 30/33 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 26/33 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kostyuk 3, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 18, 2026
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole - Rouen
C Clay · Semifinals
Aug 9, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 6, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kostyuk | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marta Kostyuk | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -11.8% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | UKR | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kostyuk has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Maria's 40%).
| Opponent | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Townsend | W 63 62 | L 76 36 26 |
| Sloane Stephens | W 61 75 | L 61 67 46 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 61 | L 57 46 |
| Katherine Sebov | W 76 60 | W 63 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 62 63 | L 64 67 16 |
| Katie Volynets | W 67 63 63 | W 62 64 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 62 | W 64 63 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 46 61 | L 57 16 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 61 63 | W 64 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 46 | L 76 57 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sloane Stephens
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Storm Hunter
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Matchup videos
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–60 matches
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 78% | 53% |
| Sets won | 72% | 55% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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