Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#11 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–0
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Marta Kostyuk and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2024; Marta Kostyuk leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Kostyuk leads 2–0. Kostyuk has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kostyuk has taken 6 sets to Maria's 0. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole - Rouen (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kostyuk | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marta Kostyuk | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 27/37 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 5/11 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/48 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 62% | 21/34 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 10/14 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 31/34 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 27/34 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kostyuk 3, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 18, 2026
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole - Rouen
C Clay · Semifinals
Aug 9, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 6, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kostyuk | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marta Kostyuk | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 9/15 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–4 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.55 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +3.3% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.49u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kostyuk has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Maria's 50%).
| Opponent | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Sloane Stephens | W 75 75 | L 61 67 46 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 61 | L 57 46 |
| Katherine Sebov | W 76 60 | W 63 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 62 63 | L 64 67 16 |
| Katie Volynets | W 67 63 63 | W 62 64 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 62 | W 64 63 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 46 61 | L 57 16 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 61 63 | W 64 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 46 | L 76 57 06 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 62 64 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Sofia Kenin
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Madison Keys
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Katherine Sebov
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–60 matches
| Metric | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 50% |
| Sets won | 71% | 52% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kostyuk | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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