Mariano Kestelboim vs Mateus AlvesPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mariano Kestelboim and Mateus Alves have met 3 times since 2024; Mateus Alves leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Montevideo in 2024 on clay. On clay courts Alves leads 2–1. Across all meetings Kestelboim has taken 3 sets to Alves's 5. Their most recent meeting: Mariano Kestelboim won at Dove Men+Care Concepción (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kestelboim | Alves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mariano Kestelboim | Mateus Alves | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 4/9 | 87% | 26/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 2/10 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 7/19 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 80% | 4/5 | 62% | 16/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 4/6 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 8/9 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 4/9 | 84% | 26/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kestelboim 0, Alves 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kestelboim
⚔️ The Gladiator
Alves
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,159 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mateus Alves.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 26, 2026
Dove Men+Care Concepción
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 2, 2025
Rosario
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 11, 2024
Montevideo
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Avg odds | 3.26 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -34.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -1.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alves has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kestelboim's 0%).
| Opponent | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo Varillas | L 06 46 | W 62 62 |
| Nicolas Kicker | L 36 26 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Iliyan Radulov
Open Sopra Steria de Lyon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 7
Sumit Nagal
Neckarcup 2.0 · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Matias Soto
Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 14
Juan Pablo Varillas
Asuncion Challenger · 1st Round
Mar 17
Juan Bautista Torres
Tigre 1 Challenger · 1st Round
Feb 17
Facundo Mena
Dove Men+Care Concepción · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 27
Mateus Alves
Dove Men+Care Concepción · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 26
Nicolas Kicker
Lima 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Nov 4
Francisco Fontes Damorim
M15 Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Jul 29
Francisco Fontes Damorim
M15 Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Jul 29
Lucas Andrade Da Silva
M25 Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
M25 Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Jul 23
Fons Van Sambeek
Bunschoten challenger
Jul 12
Nick Hardt
M25 Cuiaba · Quarterfinals
Jun 5
Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio
M25 Cuiaba · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Nicolas Villalon
M25 Cuiaba · 1st Round
Jun 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 19–50 matches
| Metric | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 60% |
| Sets won | 44% | 61% |
| Games won | 48% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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