Mariano Kestelboim vs Mateus AlvesPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Mariano Kestelboim
#1021 · 30 yrs · R
3w3 meetings · sets 3–5
🇧🇷Mateus Alves
#385 · 25 yrs · R
TitleMariano Kestelboim and Mateus Alves have met 3 times since 2024; Mateus Alves leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Montevideo in 2024 on clay. On clay courts Alves leads 2–1. Across all meetings Kestelboim has taken 3 sets to Alves's 5. Their most recent meeting: Mariano Kestelboim won at Dove Men+Care Concepción (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kestelboim | Alves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mariano Kestelboim | Mateus Alves | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 25% | 1/4 | 88% | 35/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 14% | 1/7 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 4/11 | 25% | 15/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 100% | 1/1 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 63% | 5/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 2/3 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 4/4 | 90% | 36/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 25% | 1/4 | 88% | 35/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kestelboim 0, Alves 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kestelboim
⚔️ The Gladiator
Alves
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 688 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mateus Alves.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 26, 2026
Dove Men+Care Concepción
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 2, 2025
Rosario
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 11, 2024
Montevideo
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–1 | 19–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -6.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -1.55u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ARG | BRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alves has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kestelboim's 0%).
| Opponent | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Kicker | L 36 26 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Fermin Tenti
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Iliyan Radulov
Open Sopra Steria de Lyon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 7
Sumit Nagal
Neckarcup 2.0 · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Matias Soto
Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 14
Natan Rodrigues
Campinas Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 5
Juan Pablo Varillas
Asuncion Challenger · 1st Round
Mar 17
Juan Bautista Torres
Tigre 1 Challenger · 1st Round
Feb 17
Facundo Mena
Dove Men+Care Concepción · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 27
Jose Pereira
Antofagasta Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Bautista De La Pena
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Gonzalo Villanueva
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jose Pereira
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Pedro Sakamoto
M15 Curitiba · Final
Sep 27
Wilson Leite
M15 Curitiba · Semifinals
Sep 26
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
M15 Curitiba · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity
M15 Curitiba · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 11–61 matches
| Metric | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 36% | 54% |
| Sets won | 35% | 66% |
| Games won | 45% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kestelboim | Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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