Madison Keys vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 8–3
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria have met 5 times since 2015; Madison Keys leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon in 2015 on grass. On grass courts Keys leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Keys has taken 8 sets to Maria's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 3, Maria 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 27, 2026
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Jun 14, 2025
LTA London Championships - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Apr 3, 2019
Charleston
C Clay · Round of 32
Aug 30, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Jul 1, 2015
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 13/19 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -10.3% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.95u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Maria's 50%).
| Opponent | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 63 06 | L 26 57 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 16 | L 36 06 |
| Talia Gibson | W 64 64 | W 60 63 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 64 61 | W 63 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 62 61 |
| Anna Bondar | W 62 75 | L 67 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–60 matches
| Metric | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 50% |
| Sets won | 65% | 52% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
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