Madison Keys vs Sonay KartalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6w2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇬🇧Sonay Kartal
#170 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Sonay Kartal have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2023 on grass. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Kartal's 2. Their most recent meeting: Sonay Kartal won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Kartal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sonay Kartal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 43% | 3/7 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 30% | 7/23 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 75% | 3/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 43% | 3/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 100% | 15/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 80% | 12/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Kartal 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Kartal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Madison Keys and Sonay Kartal are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Mar 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 5, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 3–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | +16.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +0.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 654 mi · 1,053 km |
| Route | — | ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Keys and Kartal posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | L 06 26 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 16 62 63 | W 64 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Anhelina Kalinina
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Xin Yu Wang
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Elena Rybakina
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 4th Round
Mar 11
Madison Keys
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 3rd Round
Mar 9
Emma Navarro
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 7
Lanlana Tararudee
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 23–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 70% |
| Sets won | 65% | 66% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Kartal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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