Madison Keys vs Sofia KeninPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6w5 meetings · sets 9–3
🇺🇸Sofia Kenin
#125 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
4Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin have met 5 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Rome in 2019 on clay. On hard courts Keys leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Keys has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Keys has taken 9 sets to Kenin's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sofia Kenin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 41% | 11/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 41% | 15/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 48% | 13/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 40% | 6/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 3, Kenin 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Kenin
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 404 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 31, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 17, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 28, 2019
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 17, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
May 15, 2019
Rome
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Kenin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Sofia Kenin | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 2–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 3.54 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | -63.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -5.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 1,246 mi · 2,005 km |
| Route | — | POR → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Kenin's 10%).
| Opponent | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Ashlyn Krueger | W 61 75 | L 36 36 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 61 67 57 | L 61 36 36 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 67 | L 36 16 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 61 63 | L 61 46 16 |
| Daria Snigur | W 46 63 63 | L 36 16 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 16 | L 64 36 57 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | L 63 46 46 | L 46 06 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 36 62 63 | L 26 64 67 |
| Petra Marcinko | W | W 76 64 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Kamilla Rakhimova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Ashlyn Krueger
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alina Charaeva
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Venus Williams
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Eva Lys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Lucrezia Stefanini
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 27% |
| Sets won | 65% | 35% |
| Games won | 56% | 44% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 3 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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