Madison Keys vs Sloane StephensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 5–12
🇺🇸Sloane Stephens
#208 · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
4Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens have met 7 times since 2015; Sloane Stephens leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Miami in 2015 on hard. On clay courts they are level 2–2. On hard courts Stephens leads 3–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Stephens leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Keys has taken 5 sets to Stephens's 12. Their most recent meeting: Sloane Stephens won at U.S. Open - New York (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sloane Stephens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 28% | 5/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 28% | 7/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 20% | 1/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 56% | 5/9 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 0, Stephens 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Stephens
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 61% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,327 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Aug 30, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 11, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 7, 2021
Volvo Car Open - Charleston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 5, 2019
Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 2, 2018
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 3, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Final
Mar 25, 2015
Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Sloane Stephens | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 13/19 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 3.00 |
| ROI % | -10.3% | +8.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.95u | +0.83u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 4 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,730 mi · 2,784 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → POL → ESP |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Stephens's 25%).
| Opponent | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | L 36 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 16 | L 57 57 |
| Belinda Bencic | W 46 63 62 | L 36 16 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 16 62 63 | W 64 57 62 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 16 76 64 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 64 61 | L 46 16 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 64 26 46 | L 36 26 |
| Karolina Pliskova | W 63 63 | L 67 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Philly Open - Philadelphia · 1st Round
Aug 25
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anastasia Potapova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Sinja Kraus
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Belinda Bencic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Solana Sierra
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Darja Vidmanova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Yuliia Starodubtseva
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–47 matches
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 28% |
| Sets won | 65% | 33% |
| Games won | 56% | 42% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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