Madison Keys vs Sloane StephensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6w7 meetings · sets 5–12
🇺🇸Sloane Stephens
#133 · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
4w4Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens have met 7 times since 2015; Sloane Stephens leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Miami in 2015 on hard. On clay courts they are level 2–2. On hard courts Stephens leads 3–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Stephens leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Keys has taken 5 sets to Stephens's 12. Their most recent meeting: Sloane Stephens won at U.S. Open - New York (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Sloane Stephens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 72% | 13/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 24% | 5/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 26% | 10/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 72% | 13/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 0, Stephens 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Stephens
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 60% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,462 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Aug 30, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 11, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 7, 2021
Volvo Car Open - Charleston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 5, 2019
Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 2, 2018
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 3, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Final
Mar 25, 2015
Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Stephens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Sloane Stephens | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 2.98 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | +21.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +3.43u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | UKR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Stephens's 30%).
| Opponent | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | L 67 46 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 61 67 57 | L 36 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 16 | L 16 57 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | L 36 26 |
| Belinda Bencic | W 46 63 62 | L 36 16 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 16 62 63 | W 64 57 62 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 16 76 64 |
| Diane Parry | L | W 62 64 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | L 06 16 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 64 61 | L 46 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Janice Tjen
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Carole Monnet
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Marta Kostyuk
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Clara Tauson
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Philly Open - Philadelphia · 1st Round
Aug 25
Marta Kostyuk
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anastasia Potapova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 46% |
| Sets won | 65% | 47% |
| Games won | 56% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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