Madison Keys vs Renata ZarazuaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5w2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇲🇽Renata Zarazua
#85 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Renata Zarazua have met 2 times since 2024; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2024 on clay. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Zarazua's 2. Their most recent meeting: Renata Zarazua won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Renata Zarazua | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 60% | 25/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 26% | 9/34 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 34% | 26/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 44% | 17/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 35% | 11/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 66% | 25/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Zarazua 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Zarazua
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 404 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 25, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 28, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Renata Zarazua | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 47% | 9/19 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 9–10 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 2.94 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | -0.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -0.06u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 4 |
| Matches | — | 8 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | — | UKR → POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Zarazua's 50%).
| Opponent | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L 16 36 |
| Anna Bondar | W 57 64 76 | W 76 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 64 60 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 64 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 63 61 | W 64 61 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | L 16 46 |
| Petra Marcinko | W | W 16 64 63 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 76 61 | L 16 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 63 06 | L 46 16 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 63 57 75 | L 16 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rebecca Sramkova
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · Semifinals
Oct 10
Katarina Zavatska
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Darya Astakhova
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Han Shi
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 1st Round
Oct 6
Aryna Sabalenka
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Anna Bondar
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Anna Bondar
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Caroline Dolehide
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–77 matches
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 56% |
| Sets won | 65% | 53% |
| Games won | 56% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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