Madison Keys vs Renata ZarazuaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇲🇽Renata Zarazua
#71 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3Madison Keys and Renata Zarazua have met 2 times since 2024; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2024 on clay. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Zarazua's 2. Their most recent meeting: Renata Zarazua won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Renata Zarazua | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 35% | 23/65 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 43% | 15/35 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 91% | 32/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Zarazua 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Zarazua
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 25, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 28, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Zarazua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Renata Zarazua | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 43% | 6/14 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 13/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 9–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 2.81 |
| ROI % | -10.3% | +10.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.95u | +1.73u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 2,526 mi · 4,066 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → AUT |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Zarazua's 40%).
| Opponent | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 64 60 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 64 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 63 61 | W 64 61 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | L 16 46 |
| Kayla Day | W 67 64 63 | W 36 63 62 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 76 61 | L 16 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 63 06 | L 46 16 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 63 57 75 | L 16 16 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 16 62 63 | L 16 06 |
| Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah | W 64 61 | L 46 62 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Clara Tauson
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Tamara Korpatsch
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anastasia Zakharova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Quarterfinals
Aug 1
Darja Vidmanova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Semifinals
Aug 1
Tatjana Maria
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mccartney Kessler
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Caroline Dolehide
W100 Evansville · Semifinals
Jul 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–66 matches
| Metric | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 62% |
| Sets won | 65% | 56% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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