Mackenzie McDonald vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Toby Samuel have met 1 time since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 1–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 0 sets to Samuel's 2. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Porto Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 83% | 52/63 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 24% | 19/80 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 67% | 42/63 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 80% | 8/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 92% | 55/60 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 87% | 52/60 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 0, Samuel 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 29, 2026
Porto Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 11–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | +26.8% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | +3.75u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POR | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs McDonald's 20%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Draxl | L 63 67 26 | W 64 62 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 26 06 | W 61 76 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 60 61 | L 63 46 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 26 36 | L 46 46 26 |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | L 57 46 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hynek Barton
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jerome Kym
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Mackenzie McDonald
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Andy Andrade
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, GBR-ECU · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Tomas Machac
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Cristian Garin
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Billy Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–84 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 76% |
| Sets won | 43% | 72% |
| Games won | 49% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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