Daniel Rincon vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Rincon and Toby Samuel have met 4 times since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Tenerife 2 Challenger in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Samuel leads 3–0. Samuel has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rincon has taken 1 sets to Samuel's 8. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Madrid Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rincon | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Rincon | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 22/37 | 83% | 52/63 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 7/28 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 22/65 | 24% | 19/80 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 15/35 | 67% | 42/63 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 15/27 | 80% | 8/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 13/25 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 29/32 | 92% | 55/60 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 22/32 | 87% | 52/60 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rincon 0, Samuel 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rincon
🪃 Counterpuncher
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Daniel Rincon and Toby Samuel are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2026
Madrid Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 12, 2026
Hersonissos 2 Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 4, 2026
Hersonissos 1 Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 9, 2026
Tenerife 2 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rincon | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Rincon | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 5 or more | 79% | 15/19 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–10 | 11–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.11 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -8.1% | +26.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.53u | +3.75u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,315 mi · 2,117 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | FRA → POR | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Rincon's 0%).
| Opponent | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Zsombor Piros | L 67 06 | L 64 36 36 |
| Maxim Mrva | L 46 46 | W 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pedro Martinez
Villena Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
David Jorda Sanchis
Porto Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Laslo Djere
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Fausto Tabacco
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dino Prizmic
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Titouan Droguet
Rennes Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Hamish Stewart
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 16
Hynek Barton
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jerome Kym
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Mackenzie McDonald
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Andy Andrade
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, GBR-ECU · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Tomas Machac
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Cristian Garin
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Billy Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–84 matches
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 76% |
| Sets won | 53% | 72% |
| Games won | 52% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.