Daniel Rincon vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Rincon and Toby Samuel have met 4 times since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Tenerife 2 Challenger in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Samuel leads 3–0. Samuel has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rincon has taken 1 sets to Samuel's 8. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Madrid Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rincon | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Rincon | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 20/34 | 86% | 64/74 |
| Wins a set when losing | 23% | 6/26 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/60 | 19% | 17/88 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 13/32 | 75% | 52/69 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 12/25 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | 77% | 17/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 26/28 | 94% | 67/71 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 90% | 64/71 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rincon 0, Samuel 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rincon
⚔️ The Gladiator
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚔️ The Gladiator vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,935 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2026
Madrid Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 12, 2026
Hersonissos 2 Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 4, 2026
Hersonissos 1 Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 9, 2026
Tenerife 2 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rincon | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Rincon | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 5 or more | 44% | 7/16 | 65% | 11/17 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.53 | 1.88 |
| ROI % | +36.8% | +21.5% |
| Units P/L | +5.88u | +2.79u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | GER | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Rincon's 0%).
| Opponent | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Zsombor Piros | L 67 06 | L 64 36 36 |
| Dali Blanch | L 26 26 | W 76 75 |
| Maxim Mrva | L 46 46 | W 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zsombor Piros
Hagen Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 27
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Zug Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Thomas Faurel
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Hazem Naw
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Jan Choinski
Braunschweig Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Laslo Djere
Braunschweig Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Sebastian Ofner
Braunschweig Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jack Pinnington Jones
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Liam Draxl
Winnipeg Challenger · Final
Jul 26
Charles Broom
Winnipeg Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Yu Hsiou Hsu
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Yosuke Watanuki
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Mikael Arseneault
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jakub Mensik
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–90 matches
| Metric | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 82% |
| Sets won | 53% | 78% |
| Games won | 52% | 61% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rincon | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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