Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro MochizukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#146 · 31 yrs · R
44 meetings · sets 5–5
🇯🇵Shintaro Mochizuki
#117 · 23 yrs · R
3Mackenzie McDonald and Shintaro Mochizuki have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Korea Open - Seoul in 2022 on hard. On grass courts Mochizuki leads 2–0. On hard courts McDonald leads 2–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 5 sets to Mochizuki's 5. Their most recent meeting: Shintaro Mochizuki won at Nottingham 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 6/25 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 14/50 | 43% | 21/49 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 15/30 | 30% | 7/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 29% | 5/17 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 7/17 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 52% | 11/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Mochizuki 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Mochizuki
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The ⚙️ Grinder archetype wins about 54% vs 🧱 The Wall across 318 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mackenzie McDonald.
Grinder players often use relentless consistency and deep court positioning to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 16, 2026
Nottingham 2 Challenger
G Grass · 2nd Round
Nov 2, 2025
Athens
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 5, 2024
Surbiton Challenger
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2022
Korea Open - Seoul
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 29% | 5/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 12–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 2.70 |
| ROI % | -24.7% | +17.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.72u | +3.47u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 145 mi · 233 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both McDonald and Mochizuki posted a 57% win rate.
| Opponent | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | L 36 16 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 46 57 | L 36 63 26 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 64 64 | L 06 36 |
| Vitaliy Sachko | W 62 61 | W 63 76 |
| Gauthier Onclin | W 76 64 | W 62 46 63 |
| Arthur Cazaux | L 36 26 | W 64 64 |
| Bernard Tomic | W 75 76 | W 61 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Soon Woo Kwon
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Hayato Matsuoka
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Charles Broom
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Liam Draxl
Winnipeg Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Johannus Monday
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Duncan Chan
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Philip Sekulic
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–55 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 40% |
| Sets won | 48% | 45% |
| Games won | 50% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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