Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro MochizukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Shintaro Mochizuki have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Korea Open - Seoul in 2022 on hard. On grass courts Mochizuki leads 2–0. On hard courts McDonald leads 2–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 5 sets to Mochizuki's 5. Their most recent meeting: Shintaro Mochizuki won at Nottingham 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 43% | 15/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 45% | 25/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 52% | 11/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Mochizuki 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Mochizuki
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🧱 The Wall is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 98 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 16, 2026
Nottingham 2 Challenger
G Grass · 2nd Round
Nov 2, 2025
Athens
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 5, 2024
Surbiton Challenger
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2022
Korea Open - Seoul
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 84% | 16/19 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 42% | 8/19 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 21% | 4/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 10–11 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -23.6% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -4.96u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 4 |
| Matches | 1 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 3,937 mi · 6,336 km |
| Route | POR | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Mochizuki's 14%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Jaime Faria | W 63 76 | L 26 46 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | L 36 16 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 46 57 | L 36 63 26 |
| Liam Draxl | L 63 67 26 | L 06 36 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 64 64 | L 06 36 |
| Vitaliy Sachko | W 62 61 | W 63 76 |
| Remy Bertola | L | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Taro Daniel
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Jaime Faria
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Martin Damm
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Pavel Kotov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Linang Xiao
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Jakub Mensik
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–63 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 40% |
| Sets won | 43% | 43% |
| Games won | 49% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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