Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#169 · 31 yrs · R
32 meetings · sets 4–0
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wMackenzie McDonald and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 2 times since 2026; Mackenzie McDonald leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Quimper Challenger in 2026 on hard. McDonald has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 4 sets to Baena's 0. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 24, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 29, 2026
Quimper Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baena has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | L 67 36 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | L 67 57 | W 60 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–51 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 51% |
| Sets won | 43% | 51% |
| Games won | 49% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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