Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#146 · 31 yrs · R
42 meetings · sets 4–0
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wMackenzie McDonald and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 2 times since 2026; Mackenzie McDonald leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Quimper Challenger in 2026 on hard. McDonald has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 4 sets to Baena's 0. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Wimbledon (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 6/25 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 14/50 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 15/30 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 29% | 5/17 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 7/17 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,208 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 29, 2026
Wimbledon
G Grass · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 29, 2026
Quimper Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -24.7% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.72u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | CAN | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baena has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Shintaro Mochizuki | L 67 57 | W 60 63 |
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 36 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–53 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 55% |
| Sets won | 48% | 54% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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