Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#169 · 31 yrs · R
33 meetings · sets 6–2
🇳🇴Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#152 · 20 yrs · R
Mackenzie McDonald and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer have met 3 times since 2025; Mackenzie McDonald leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Chengdu in 2025 on hard. On grass courts McDonald leads 2–0. McDonald has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 6 sets to Kjaer's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Nottingham 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Budkov Kjaer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 34% | 12/35 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 35% | 8/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 61% | 14/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Budkov Kjaer 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Kjaer
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 212 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 14, 2026
Nottingham 2 Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 2, 2026
Birmingham Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 17, 2025
Chengdu
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Kjaer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -25.6% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -4.36u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 461 mi · 742 km |
| Route | POR | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (30% vs Kjaer's 20%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Moez Echargui | W 62 75 | W 67 75 61 |
| Dalibor Svrcina | L 64 26 57 | L 46 26 |
| Christopher O'Connell | W 63 64 64 | L 57 46 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 46 57 | L 63 36 710 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 46 67 | L 46 46 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 26 62 75 | L 46 64 46 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 46 | W 41 34 42 43 |
| Remy Bertola | L | L 57 16 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 26 36 | L 46 46 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 76 67 36 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Felix Balshaw
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Billy Harris
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Jie Cui
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Titouan Droguet
Cassis Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Moez Echargui
Cassis Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Cassis Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Felix Balshaw
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–64 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 47% |
| Sets won | 43% | 45% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
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