Lucia Bronzetti vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lucia Bronzetti
#135 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
33 meetings · sets 0–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wLucia Bronzetti and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2023; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at United Cup - Australia in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Bronzetti has taken 0 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bronzetti | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucia Bronzetti | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 22/33 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 10/31 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 21/64 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 13/25 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 29/33 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 22/33 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bronzetti 0, Keys 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bronzetti
🪃 Counterpuncher
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 24, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 1, 2025
Auckland
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 8, 2023
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bronzetti | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lucia Bronzetti | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 63% | 10/16 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.65 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -25.7% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.85u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → ESP | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bronzetti's 0%).
| Opponent | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ferro | L 26 36 | W 64 62 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 75 46 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Fiona Crawley
Samsun Open - Samsun · 1st Round
Oct 5
Lois Boisson
Adana Open - Adana · 1st Round
Sep 29
Irene Burillo
ATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · 1st Round
Sep 7
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Luisina Giovannini
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Laura Samson
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Semifinals
Aug 1
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Alevtina Ibragimova
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–64 matches
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 68% |
| Sets won | 51% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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