Lucia Bronzetti vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lucia Bronzetti
#135 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
4w3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Lucia Bronzetti and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2023; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at United Cup - Australia in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Bronzetti has taken 0 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bronzetti | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucia Bronzetti | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 9/30 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 17/59 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 15/31 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 12/23 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 6/12 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 25/29 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bronzetti 0, Keys 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bronzetti
🪃 Counterpuncher
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 24, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 1, 2025
Auckland
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 8, 2023
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bronzetti | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lucia Bronzetti | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 16/24 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 8% | 2/24 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 39% | 7/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 20–7 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.56 | 1.43 |
| ROI % | +9.2% | -5.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.49u | -0.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | MKD | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bronzetti's 0%).
| Opponent | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ferro | L 26 36 | W 64 62 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 75 46 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Laura Samson
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Semifinals
Aug 1
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Alevtina Ibragimova
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Miriana Tona
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 1st Round
Jul 28
Fiona Ferro
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · Semifinals
Jul 25
Yasmine Kabbaj
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Dalila Spiteri
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Ilary Pistola
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo · 1st Round
Jul 21
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–59 matches
| Metric | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 68% |
| Sets won | 50% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bronzetti | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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