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Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Luca Van Assche

🇫🇷Luca Van Assche

#40 · 22 yrs · R

Title
2–0

2 meetings · sets 4–2

Pablo Carreno Busta

🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta

#66 · 35 yrs · R

Luca Van Assche and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2025; Luca Van Assche leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Olbia Challenger in 2025 on hard. Assche has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Assche leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Assche has taken 4 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Luca Van Assche won at Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorVan AsscheCarreno Busta
Wins in straight sets57%57%
Wins a set when losing39%50%
Goes to a deciding set42%45%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite48%47%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog69%57%
Tiebreak sets won40%63%
Wins after taking set 192%89%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 168%66%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Van Assche 0, Carreno Busta 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Assche

⚔️ The Gladiator

Physical intensityBalanced gameStrong in deciding setsCompetitive fighter
vs

Busta

🏹 Frontrunner

Fast startsAggressive openersMomentum-drivenStrong holds

Matchup analysis

The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 58% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 329 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.

Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.

Previous meetings

2 career meetings, newest first

Jul 23, 2026

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril

C Clay · 2nd Round

63
46
62
Assche

Oct 19, 2025

Olbia Challenger

H Hard · Final

765
617
62
Assche

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeAsscheBusta
1 or more91%88%
3 or more62%63%
5 or more19%25%
10 or more0%0%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricAsscheBusta
W-L14–54–5
Avg odds1.882.29
ROI %+38.5%+0.8%
Units P/L+7.31u+0.07u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricAsscheBusta
Countries22
Events42
Matches73
Distance2,443 mi · 3,931 km712 mi · 1,146 km
RouteCAN → USA → CAN → USACAN → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Across 10 shared opponents, both Assche and Busta posted a 60% win rate.

OpponentAsscheBusta
Andrey Rublev
W
36
63
64
L
67
16
Vilius Gaubas
W
64
62
26
75
W
61
63
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
L
60
36
26
L
63
57
57
Dusan Lajovic
W
26
75
64
L
46
63
36
Tallon Griekspoor
L
67
46
L
46
46
Marton Fucsovics
L
36
04
W
46
76
62
Sebastian Ofner
W
26
62
63
W
36
63
64
Daniel Rincon
W
63
60
W
62
62
Hugo Grenier
W
61
62
W
46
61
64
Francisco Comesana
L
57
16
W
64
63

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Assche
LWWWWLLW
L

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round

16
667

Aug 25

W

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Quebec City Challenger · Final

61
64

Aug 23

W

Hugo Gaston

Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals

64
64

Aug 22

W

Benjamin Bonzi

Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals

762
75

Aug 21

W

Rei Sakamoto

Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round

46
64
763

Aug 20

L

Yannick Hanfmann

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

26
46

Aug 14

L

Titouan Droguet

National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round

46
62
677

Aug 3

W

Alexander Blockx

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Final

64
46
75

Jul 26

Busta
LWLLWLWL
L

Andrey Rublev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

657
16

Aug 16

W

Tomas Machac

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

63
62

Aug 14

L

Valentin Royer

National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round

61
57
26

Aug 4

L

Luca Van Assche

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round

36
64
26

Jul 23

W

Vilius Gaubas

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round

61
63

Jul 21

L

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round

63
57
57

Jul 15

W

Matej Dodig

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round

64
62

Jul 14

L

Rafael Jodar

Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round

63
36
61
36
46

Jul 2

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ AsscheAssche ahead↓ Busta

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–69 matches

MetricAsscheBusta
Matches won65%65%
Sets won60%60%
Games won54%53%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageAsscheBusta
Finals10
ATP 25010
ATP Challenger Tour10

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceAsscheBusta
Hard10
Clay10

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Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta FAQ

Luca Van Assche leads the head-to-head 2–0 over 2 meetings.